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Aluminum market: the market returns to rational differences have now become clear.

Release time:

2019-02-18 16:00

Source:

Affected by the signs of easing of transportation in most regions and the decline in the market transaction atmosphere, the domestic aluminum price has increased in divergence after the strong surge in the early stage, and the upward momentum is obviously insufficient. However, it rose again yesterday after the futures exchange month. The main reason is that, on the one hand, the monthly difference in the early stage is relatively large, the market has a certain replenishment after the exchange month, and on the other hand, the inventory is still at a low level, which makes funds enthusiastic.

Aladdin (ALD) believes that the current market differences have become more obvious, long and short reasons have a certain persuasive.

Multiple reasons

1, inventory continued to be low. Since the beginning of this year, electrolytic aluminum stocks have continued to show a downward trend and fell to a historical low of about 200000 tons before the National Day, seriously endangering supply security. On the one hand, the decline in inventory is due to the obvious rebound in consumption since September, and on the other hand, the transportation reform at the end of September caused a large number of aluminum ingots to be blocked at the front end of the logistics and could not be released to the mainstream market, and the transportation problem has not been fundamentally solved so far. It is roughly understood that there is a total backlog of about 100000 tons of aluminum ingots at several major platforms in Xinjiang.

2, electrolytic aluminum spot costs rose sharply. Alumina prices rose continuously after the National Day, almost one price a day. Thermal coal prices have risen above 600 yuan/tonne in in stock due to the effectiveness of supply-side reforms, the decline in hydropower data and the expectation of the winter coal peak. If you do not take into account the aluminum plant in the early stage of a large number of raw material storage factors, according to the spot price to calculate, the national weighted average cost has increased to 12000 yuan/ton above.

Empty Reason

1, electrolytic aluminum supply and demand pattern from a serious shortage to a tight balance or micro-surplus. 2016 is a year of accumulation of funds for aluminum plants and a year of rapid expansion of production capacity. With the continuous rise of aluminum prices, electrolytic aluminum production has also reached a new high. According to Aladdin's calculation data, after August, the new production and resumption of electrolytic aluminum production began to release production significantly. The market shortage situation was reversed and there was a theoretical surplus in figures.

2, transportation problems are gradually easing. Aladdin (ALD) understands that at present, aluminum enterprises, logistics and downstream enterprises in various regions are actively coordinating the transportation situation and have achieved certain results. Among them, the transportation situation in Yunnan, Guangxi, Qinghai, Gansu, Shandong and other places has improved compared with the previous period, but the automobile transportation is still tight, the train transportation has lengthened the transportation cycle and the arrival time is scattered. The bigger problem is still in Xinjiang. Although it still takes time to solve it, it will eventually be solved. Once the shipment situation is eased, it will not be ruled out that a large number of goods will arrive.

3, aluminum rod market downturn, processing fees almost cut. This week, aluminum rods in South China are almost at the same price as aluminum ingots and the pressure of manufacturers is very obvious. If the pattern continues, some aluminum rod factories may reduce production, and the supply of aluminum ingots in the market may increase.

4, aluminum plant sales enthusiasm to improve. In the case of fewer goods in the market and high aluminum prices, aluminum plants with cost advantages and logistics advantages have a strong sense of shipment.

5. Although the warehouse arrival quantity is small, the warehouse delivery quantity is also small. On the one hand, some aluminum ingots are diverted nearby around the aluminum factory due to the transportation problems in the early stage, and the increase in delivery to the factory leads to less delivery of goods in the warehouse. On the other hand, it also reflects the fear of the market.

Aladdin (ALD) Views

At present, the market has immediate positive and expected negative, and with the short-term theme of the speculation enthusiasm gradually faded after the market returns to rationality, look at the later face of the long-short factors. The hidden dangers of increased supply are gradually floating in the market and will have a significant impact on future trends.